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Supply Market Forecasts Signal Lower Winter Heating Bills

Oct 11, 2023 - 11:00 AM


Upstate NY

Natural Gas


While prices for everything from groceries to housing continue to increase, National Grid is forecasting some good news for its customers: based on current market conditions, residential natural gas heating bills are expected to decrease by more than 18% for the 2023-24 winter heating season. The forecasted year-over-year decrease is attributed to increased domestic natural gas production and supply, and lower demand on the international market.

Even with the forecasted lower heating bills, National Grid recognizes that customers may be struggling to make ends meet. That’s why the company is continuing its successful Customer Savings Initiative into the upcoming winter heating season. Launched in 2022, the Customer Savings Initiative connects customers with resources to reduce energy usage and save money, better manage bills, and secure available energy assistance. National Grid’s resources include numerous payment programs for income-eligible customers, extensive residential and business energy efficiency programs and incentives, low-cost and no-cost bill management solutions, and flexible payment programs.  

Additionally, the company’s shareholders contributed $6 million to establish the first New York energy company relief programs to provide emergency heating and food assistance to low- to moderate-income customers who do not qualify for federally funded affordability programs.

“While reduced heating costs is certainly welcome news for our customers, we recognize that energy prices can still add to the financial burden for those who are struggling with higher costs at the grocery store, gas pump and elsewhere,” said Melanie Littlejohn, National Grid’s New York Vice President for Customer and Community Engagement. “Our commitment is to support our customers by helping them stay warm and safe this winter. National Grid has many assistance programs available, as well as energy saving strategies, resources and tips. We are encouraging our customers to take action now, before the cold weather arrives.”

Littlejohn noted that the company is conducting proactive outreach through email, radio advertisements, traditional and social media, webinars, customer Energy Savings Events, and bill messaging to highlight programs to help customers manage their energy bills.

How Current Forecasts Will Affect Winter Bills

Based on current market conditions, National Grid’s residential natural gas customers who use an average of 719 therms during the five-month winter heating season — November 1, 2023, to March 30, 2024 — are forecasted to pay about $143 less – about 18.3% – than last winter. The forecast is based on slightly higher therm usage as 2024 is a leap year.

National Grid plays an active role in managing the natural gas purchased on behalf of customers by using storage and future price hedges, or locked-in pricing. Today’s forecasts account for the benefit of the company’s hedging strategies, which help mitigate wholesale supply price volatility on customers’ bills. As a reminder, the cost of energy supply is set by the marketplace and passed directly on to customers without markup.         

Winter bill forecasts are based on information available at the end of September and assume typical winter weather conditions. Because energy costs and use are impacted by weather and other market factors, the company reminds customers that today’s forecasted figures are approximate and based on a snapshot in time. In addition to weather, factors that determine actual costs are wholesale energy supply prices, global supply and demand, and energy use, all of which can be dramatically impacted by severely cold temperatures.

Customer Assistance

Customers who are having difficulty with affording their energy bills are encouraged to contact National Grid as soon as possible. There are several assistance programs for income-eligible customers, including:

  • The federal Home Energy Assistance Program, which provides eligible customers with financial grants that assist in paying home heating bills. These grants do not need to be repaid. The program is administered by county departments of social service and typically runs from November through March, but the timeframe may be lengthened or shortened based on federal funding availability. For more information about HEAP, contact your county’s department of social services.
  • National Grid’s Energy Affordability Program, which provides automatic monthly gas and electricity bill credits for HEAP-eligible customers or customers who participate in other qualifying programs.
  • NYSERDA's EmPower New York Income-Eligible Free Weatherization Program, under which a participating contractor will complete a no-cost home energy assessment to identify if a home would benefit from free energy upgrades such as high-efficiency lighting, attic and wall insulation, replacement of old, inefficient refrigerators and freezers and water-saving showerheads.

National Grid’s two new relief programs were established last winter to aid customers who exceed federal poverty levels but fall below basic cost of living guidelines.

  • The Hope & Warmth Energy Fund provides emergency financial assistance to National Grid customers who meet financial qualifications and have a disconnect notice.
  • Hearts Fighting Hunger offers one-time emergency food assistance to National Grid customers who meet financial and other eligibility criteria.

Both programs, along with the Care & Share Energy Fund, are administered by HeartShare Human Services of New York.

Additionally, National Grid Consumer Advocates work directly with customers to help them manage their energy bills. The Advocates specialize in assisting income-eligible and vulnerable customers, aligning them with available programs and services offered by National Grid and local agency partners. They can be reached at 1-800-642-4272 or

Additional Customer Solutions:

  • The Budget Billing Program, open to all residential customers, spreads payments out more evenly across the year to help better manage energy costs.
  • A no-cost home energy audit, available through NYSERDA, provides a top-to-bottom look at where a home is wasting energy. Customers will learn the root causes of any drafts, inconsistent temperatures, heating and cooling system failures, and other problems, and will receive recommendations about how to address these issues.
  • National Grid's free online home energy survey, a no-cost, five-minute questionnaire that provides customers with a custom energy savings report.

The company also encourages customers to take advantage of additional payment and billing options, including flexible payment agreements and special protections.

About National Grid

National Grid (NYSE: NGG) is an electricity, natural gas, and clean energy delivery company serving more than 20 million people through our networks in New York and Massachusetts. National Grid is focused on building a smarter, stronger, cleaner energy future — transforming our networks with more reliable and resilient energy solutions to meet state climate goals and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

For more information, please visit our website, follow us on X (formerly Twitter), watch us on YouTube, like us on Facebook and find us on Instagram.

Media Contacts

Jared Paventi

Syracuse (Central NY)

(315) 427-1092

Send an email to Contact 1

Patrick Stella

Albany (Eastern NY)

(518) 433-3838

Send an email to Contact 2

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